STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING OF MACRO FACTORS OF RAILWAY ACCIDENTS : A WORLDWIDE ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of macro factors on rail accidents from an international perspective. In the literature, only micro factors of rail accidents have been analyzed. However, understanding the influence of macro factors on rail accidents would guide the decision makers in managing their strategies for improving rail safety. Through extensive literature review, a set of macro factors of rail accidents are determined as transport volume factors (total rail route, passenger and freight volume) and contextual factors (GDP per capita, R&D expenditures, quality of railway infrastructure). By compiling various data from different sources, a dataset is obtained. First, an inspection of the data is presented via world maps demonstrating the rate of factors and accidents. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) is constructed to determine and visualize the joint effects of macro factors on rail accidents. After analyses, total rail route as well as passenger volume are found to have positive relations with rail accidents, whereas freight volume has a negative relation. Moreover, railway infrastructure quality and R&D expenditures have negative relations with rail accidents whereas GDP per capita has a positive relation. This study is unique in analyzing the macro factors of rail accidents and in building SEM to describe the joint effects. For the countries planning to increase passenger capacity with respect to freight capacity, this study suggests to increase the rail safety to attenuate the forthcoming risks. Moreover, this study points out the necessity of converting the financial resources to good infrastructure and R&D activities to reduce rail accidents. © 2021 Fabrizio Serra Editore Srl. All rights reserved.